Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Short Gold technical analysis

We looked at the technical analysis of Gold in my last post. I was tempted to a short one today based on the latest happenings based on the ETF GLD

Recently GLD has been dropping and the close for yesterday seems to be a support for 20 day EMA and also one last high.
MACD indicators say we are in slighly overbought market.

Daily chart indicator using trade triangles gave a sell signal at $95. Weekly charts still have the green signal.

Personally I think 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA could be very short term support levels for some intermediate term fall.

Allan's recent Elliott wave blog posts have been saying we are in declining Gold.

What are your thoughts?

Monday, February 16, 2009

Quick fusion brunch food for the economy

After posting about January effects and gold analysis I wanted to change the subject from the sour economy to something tastier. Here I suggest a simple brunch recipe which gives one energy to sustain and blog in this economy :).
Its called the Avocado fusion sandwich.

1. 2 slices of multigrain or wheat bread or which ever is your favorite breads.
2. 1/2 Avocado ripened.
3. 1 teaspoon Salt
4. Pepper as per taste
5. Few Baby Spinach leaves
6. 4-5 slices of cut Cucumber
7. 2-3 slices of cut Tomato
8. Indian style dry peanut chutney 2-3 tea spoons

How to make it:
1. Mix the avocado, salt and pepper into a paste and apply to one side of the bread.
2. Top it off with peanut chutney, cucumber and tomato.
3. Spread the spinach leaves on the top.
4. Cover it off with the other slice of bread.

Cur into a triangle to make it look good ! Done.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Where is gold headed ?

I have been doing some research on technical analysis over the past few months - using technical indicators and marketclub triangles to figure out directions of some common names.

With the decline in stock markets , Gold has become a safe haven for investors and has recently sparked a rally. I usually track value of gold using the ETF GLD.

Marketclub's weekly trade triangles are pointing to an uptrend with both the weekly and daily triangles being green. Here is a weekly chart of GLD.

Let us use the common technical analysis signals using's interactive signals

The trend line in solid blue indicates strong uptrend however the MACD and ROC signals indicate almost oversold signals.
The stock chart is above the indicator for 20 and 50 day EMA. For a horizon of a month or so the stock looks to be in uptrend with dips.

For a longer horizon the charts below seem to suggest that GLD is well above its 200 day EMA and also broken a key downturn trend.

Do you think Gold is overbought?

Disclaimer: I am currently long GLD. The above indicators are the authors view of the trend from various sources and investments should be based on risk and self assessment.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

2009 January effect - did we see one?

In my last post at the beginning of January titled 2009 January effect we said that many investors believe that January is the month of high returns , particularly for the small caps.
Well, lets check it out:

The NASDAQ ETF QQQQQ moved from 29.46 to 29.06 closed basically flat throughout the month.
I was looking for something to track the small cap market and quick google searches yielded Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity Fund (VSTCX). Dec 31st prices closed at 12.15 and at Jan 31st the fund was at 10.87 down slightly less than 10%.

The S&P 500 went from 902 to 825 down almost 10%.

Essentially looks like all the markets were down in Jan. Is that because we had a stellar December? Did people not have money to reinvest in January?

Looks like investors, still unsure about the economy stopped from putting long orders in January. Lets hope the future months will see a rebound into the positive territory.