Gold May analysis - recent run up !

After my last Gold technical analysis in April gold has a run up.


Market club's monthly and weekly signals had given a buy since the 90 and 89 levels respectively. This may be mainly due to inflation concerns. 99 might be one big resistance that GLD needs to pass through.

RSI has reached around the overbought area but MACD is showing good promise. Going by last times runup ultimate top was formed when both MACD and RSI were at top.


Buy in next dip might be the right thing to do here?

April Gold technical analysis - is Gold confused?

After my GLD technical analysis in March I decided to take a look at GLD again.
Here is MarketClub's analysis.


Monthly indicator is bullish but weekly and daily are negative.

After being in an undecided territory GLD started its downward spiral making its earlier support now a resistance line.
Using some Fibo and Elliott wave theories I would guess the downward spiral might be of similar length given the one from 98- 89.
If the length of current decline is the same as the one before we would expect ten basis points from 94 which is around the 84 level before some rally.


RSI indicates oversold, MACD is in bearish territory for right now and volume is down. Need some volume to pick up upward trend. Thoughts ?

Tax time for gold or silver

If you have enjoyed GLD or SLV gains in 2008, you might have had a tough time with reporting the taxes. GLD or SLV lists some monthly sells that it passes to shareholders.
They are also referred to as WHFITs (Widely Held Fixed Investment Trusts).
If you are using any software like Turbo Tax and use auto login's to your brokers website all of the above are listed as gains and added to Turbo Tax.
The issue is its difficult to list cost -basis and hence SPDRs shows how to report the gains. Please see here for details on reporting GLD.

PS: I am not a tax advisor/consultant. Please contact your tax advisor for details.

Gold technical analysis - different views

Recent change in Gold price surprised some individuals who were basing their theories on pure tech analysis. Agreed that the gold chart was forming a wedge or trying to make a decision but this time the move was mainly in the up direction due to the recent news of some inflation starting to pour in the market.

Here is stock chart weekly analysis since my last technical gold analysis in early March



Looks like support is now becoming resistance. Lets see how the market shapes up.
Market club's monthly is still a buy:




Weekly is at sell since 88.

Looks like gold is starting is new bull. If it clears its previous highs of around $100 we will have a new target.

Gold technical analysis March 2009

Latest gold charts and movements are here:



Marketclub's weekly, monthly and quarterly signals still signal a buy. The Daily chart which had signalled a sell now moved to a buy territory.







According to Fibonacci retracement we are in the first retracement level. Will we cross it or go down? Elliott wave chartists say this is the wave B?

Where is gold headed ?

I have been doing some research on technical analysis over the past few months - using technical indicators and marketclub triangles to figure out directions of some common names.

With the decline in stock markets , Gold has become a safe haven for investors and has recently sparked a rally. I usually track value of gold using the ETF GLD.

Marketclub's weekly trade triangles are pointing to an uptrend with both the weekly and daily triangles being green. Here is a weekly chart of GLD.

Let us use the common technical analysis signals using stockcharts.com's interactive signals

The trend line in solid blue indicates strong uptrend however the MACD and ROC signals indicate almost oversold signals.
The stock chart is above the indicator for 20 and 50 day EMA. For a horizon of a month or so the stock looks to be in uptrend with dips.

For a longer horizon the charts below seem to suggest that GLD is well above its 200 day EMA and also broken a key downturn trend.

Do you think Gold is overbought?

Disclaimer: I am currently long GLD. The above indicators are the authors view of the trend from various sources and investments should be based on risk and self assessment.