With the current bull market initiating around March of 2009 we see some dips or selling as the market continues to climb. One of the past two run ups one from February to May 2010 in which the DOW climbed from 10000 to 11200 and then from Sept to November 2010 when the DOW roughly climbed the same amount. If past is any indication of the future then will the DOW have a correction in February around 12000 ?
If you are a buyer: One theory in long investing suggests buying in an uptrend. However as everyone knows market comes down quicker and bigger than when it goes up. Should an investor take a risk in getting in the DOW ride or wait for a correction?
If you are already in a market and want to cash out you might be looking at good exit points:
Technical pundits typically will advise selling a stock when it moves below its 20 or 50 day line. Investors business daily has a small course on sell signals .
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Saturday, September 18, 2010
15 year vs. 30 year mortgage
NPR's marketplace recently had a clip talking about how mortgages used to be 15 or 20 years and the great depression changed it.
The rationale behind this was ofcourse make house affordable, the catch - pay more interest over long term.
With people refinancing or moving this have changed recently but one is likely to end up in some other 30 year mortgage.
Hypothetically if someone buys a house at 35, and then switches to another one at 45 then the0 move could reset the 30 years till 75 past retirement age.
The goal of retirement at typically 70 is be debt free. If that's the case can someone who can afford the mortgage at 45 still be afford when 71? Who's responsbility is it to pay off the mortgage by 70 or retirement age?
One of the answers before the housing collapse would have been that in 10 years someone could have made some money in house price increase and then earn some equity in the next house. With the housing collapse this might make easier for some people who bought their houses way before the collapse and now get a good bargain for their new dream.
Thoughts?
The rationale behind this was ofcourse make house affordable, the catch - pay more interest over long term.
With people refinancing or moving this have changed recently but one is likely to end up in some other 30 year mortgage.
Hypothetically if someone buys a house at 35, and then switches to another one at 45 then the0 move could reset the 30 years till 75 past retirement age.
The goal of retirement at typically 70 is be debt free. If that's the case can someone who can afford the mortgage at 45 still be afford when 71? Who's responsbility is it to pay off the mortgage by 70 or retirement age?
One of the answers before the housing collapse would have been that in 10 years someone could have made some money in house price increase and then earn some equity in the next house. With the housing collapse this might make easier for some people who bought their houses way before the collapse and now get a good bargain for their new dream.
Thoughts?
Saturday, April 17, 2010
How long will the market run continue
Hard to say but one can continue to invest in this up market and have stops in the right places. Small caps might be a hit and miss , so for long term I would recommend large caps.
If you do want to get into small caps then ETFs might be worth the play.
If you do want to get into small caps then ETFs might be worth the play.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Gold May analysis - recent run up !
After my last Gold technical analysis in April gold has a run up.
Market club's monthly and weekly signals had given a buy since the 90 and 89 levels respectively. This may be mainly due to inflation concerns. 99 might be one big resistance that GLD needs to pass through.
RSI has reached around the overbought area but MACD is showing good promise. Going by last times runup ultimate top was formed when both MACD and RSI were at top.
Buy in next dip might be the right thing to do here?
Market club's monthly and weekly signals had given a buy since the 90 and 89 levels respectively. This may be mainly due to inflation concerns. 99 might be one big resistance that GLD needs to pass through.
RSI has reached around the overbought area but MACD is showing good promise. Going by last times runup ultimate top was formed when both MACD and RSI were at top.
Buy in next dip might be the right thing to do here?
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Where is WallStreet headed? Commonly asked questions
Everyone's cheering the upward move in the DOW, S &P and NASDAQ markets in the last few weeks.
There have been various theories as to what could happen next with the market and how long will this continue. I found a few which I can highlight here:
After a spectacular rally from the lows seen last month, the S&P, the DOW appears to be running into overhead resistance.
Investor Sajal has highlighted few key points in his blog in Seeking Alpha. Analysts are making different kinds of predictions from this being a bear market rally ready to loose steam or beginning of a new bull market to a bear market rally that will suck in more traders.
Mick Weinstein gives us a good summary at yahoo finance .
The coming few weeks are earnings weeks which is where the market swings in different directions in one-two day intervals.
In my opinion we will see some back and forth in some target area until earnings season is over. The direction of the market will be decided once the earnings season comes to a halt.
Thoughts?
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Finance movies anyone ?
If finance or business interests you, then probably you can relate to some movies that cover these topics. These Hollywood movies range from comedy to serious and depict how money can change lives.
1. Trading places: A rich guy and a poor guy end up swapping their positions in the game of finance. Watch Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykryod in this funny 1983 movie.
2. Office Space: This one brings the office to the movie theater. Tech programmers can relate most to this silicon valley comedy.
3. Wallstreet: This is about a WallStreet stockbroker who wants to get to the top by using both legal and illegal methods.
4. Rogue Trader: Ambitious, Nick Leeson finds himself as a futures option trader in this 1999 Hollywood movie. I have not yet watched this one. Any reviews?
5. Lost in America: Money Magazine brought this to my attention. Have not seen this movie yet . This 1985 movie depicts the life of a couple who start on a journey and lose their nest egg.
Do you have more to add to the list?
1. Trading places: A rich guy and a poor guy end up swapping their positions in the game of finance. Watch Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykryod in this funny 1983 movie.
2. Office Space: This one brings the office to the movie theater. Tech programmers can relate most to this silicon valley comedy.
3. Wallstreet: This is about a WallStreet stockbroker who wants to get to the top by using both legal and illegal methods.
4. Rogue Trader: Ambitious, Nick Leeson finds himself as a futures option trader in this 1999 Hollywood movie. I have not yet watched this one. Any reviews?
5. Lost in America: Money Magazine brought this to my attention. Have not seen this movie yet . This 1985 movie depicts the life of a couple who start on a journey and lose their nest egg.
Do you have more to add to the list?
Saturday, April 11, 2009
April Gold technical analysis - is Gold confused?
After my GLD technical analysis in March I decided to take a look at GLD again.
Here is MarketClub's analysis.
Monthly indicator is bullish but weekly and daily are negative.
After being in an undecided territory GLD started its downward spiral making its earlier support now a resistance line.
Using some Fibo and Elliott wave theories I would guess the downward spiral might be of similar length given the one from 98- 89.
If the length of current decline is the same as the one before we would expect ten basis points from 94 which is around the 84 level before some rally.
RSI indicates oversold, MACD is in bearish territory for right now and volume is down. Need some volume to pick up upward trend. Thoughts ?
Here is MarketClub's analysis.
Monthly indicator is bullish but weekly and daily are negative.
After being in an undecided territory GLD started its downward spiral making its earlier support now a resistance line.
Using some Fibo and Elliott wave theories I would guess the downward spiral might be of similar length given the one from 98- 89.
If the length of current decline is the same as the one before we would expect ten basis points from 94 which is around the 84 level before some rally.
RSI indicates oversold, MACD is in bearish territory for right now and volume is down. Need some volume to pick up upward trend. Thoughts ?
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